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Bryan Allegretto, California Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto has been writing insightful posts about snow storms for over the last 15 years and is known as Tahoe’s go-to snow forecaster. BA grew up in south Jersey, surfing, snowboarding, and chasing down the storms creating the epic conditions for both.

OpenSummit August 28

August 28, 2021 We have gusty southwest winds Wednesday and highs only in the 70s as a trough moves through. The persistent southwest wind pattern most afternoons is funneling smoke into the area from the Caldor fire located to the southwest of the Tahoe Basin. The good news is that the west/southwest winds Thursday through Saturday afternoon should be lighter with gusts of only 15-20+ mph. The choppier water should be limited to the afternoons away from the west shore. The bad news is that the dry conditions and the smoke will likely persist and the fire will continue to creep closer to the area. The sunny but smoky skies will continue through the weekend. It will stay cooler through Thursday with highs in the 70s at lake level. Then a warmup through the weekend back into the 80s as high pressure builds over the region. By Sunday afternoon another trough is pushing into the West Coast. That could bring back stronger winds in the afternoons into early next week. And cooler temperatures again by the middle of the week. It's fun starting to see these deeper troughs move through. A reminder that it won't be long until the jet stream starts to strengthen and dip south with storms spinning up over the Pacific. If we see early snow it can be as early as the 1st half of September which is now only 2-3 weeks away. For now, the forecast remains dry through next week.

OPENSUMMIT August 12, 2021

August 12, 2021 High pressure is sitting over the West bringing us another summer heatwave this week. High temperatures at lake level will be in the mid to upper 80s through the weekend, and only a few degrees cooler out on the lake. The biggest problem for us the last few days and likely into the weekend has been the air quality. Most of the fires have been burning to our north in northern CA. The light and variable winds have allowed the smoke to drift south into the Tahoe Basin. The wind forecast through Saturday morning doesn't look to provide much help. Any afternoon southwest Zephry winds are likely to be brief. Saturday afternoon we could see the southwest winds finally increase and sustain through the afternoon, and then possibly most of the day Sunday with some stronger gusts by afternoon. That could help to finally start pushing the smoke out of the area. It will also bring some choppier water out on the lake during the afternoons. The winds Sunday will be in response to a trough moving into the Pacific NW into early next week. That could bring some relief to the heat with a cooldown expected for early next week. High temperatures closer to average for August, around 80 degrees at lake level. The gusty afternoon winds could continue early next week. Expecting the dry pattern to continue...

OPENSUMMIT August 4, 2021

August 4, 2021 We have a dry forecast ahead with some windy days. The good news is that the smoke has mostly cleared the Tahoe region. We have a few bigger fires to our north but the typical wind direction during the summer is southwest which is keeping the smoke to our north. The Forecast: For Thursday, we will see a small trough move into the West Coast. That will bring us some windy and cooler weather. Highs only in the 70s at lake level. It will be windy most of the day, especially in the afternoon with gusts of 20-30+ mph from the southwest. That will bring rougher water to the lake, and it will also bring higher fire danger. The NWS Reno has issued a Red Flag Warning for Thursday. The Weekend: Friday the winds should be much lighter and highs return to around 80 degrees at lake level into Saturday. The sunny and dry weather continues. By Saturday afternoon the typical Zephyr winds should return with southwest winds gusting 15-20+ mph on the lake. That will bring choppy water during the afternoon away from the west shore of the lake. By Sunday afternoon another trough may be approaching the Pacific Northwest which could help to bring a return of some stronger afternoon winds and slightly cooler air. Lake winds gusting from the southwest 20-30+ mph by afternoon bringing rougher water again. Early Next Week: The Pacific NW trough moves into the Rockies early next week. That could keep us slightly cooler with highs only in the 70s at lake level. It could also mean that the gusty afternoon winds continue. With the change in the pattern this week the southerly flow and surge of monsoonal moisture northward has gone away. That means we don't have a moisture source through early next week to help develop afternoon showers and thunderstorms as we saw over the past week. The forecast models keep us dry over at least the next 7 days. - BA

OPENSUMMIT July 28, 2021

July 28, 2021 We are finally past the heat waves and with the rain and wind the last 2 days the air quality has greatly improved. The Dixie fire is only 23% contained and could bring more smoke into the area, but for now, our forecasts keep the smoke mainly to our north over the next few days. With low pressure to our west along the West Coast and high pressure to our east into the weekend, that will bring a southerly flow and monsoonal moisture northward from the Gulf of CA. High temperatures in the low to mid-80s through Friday at lake level, and upper 70s out over the colder lake waters. Cooler the higher in elevation you go as always. The latest forecast model runs show quite a bit of moisture moving up from the south through Saturday. That could bring showers and thunderstorms each afternoon Thursday through Saturday, and then drier air works in Sunday into early next week. We should see typically afternoon Zephry winds each day with southwest winds gusting 15-20+ mph over the lake. That brings choppier afternoon waters away from the West Shore. Variable winds from the north and east overnight each night could push some smoke into the area each night, but the afternoon winds and rain showers should clean up the air each day as they did on Monday and Tuesday. Drier weather is expected early next week with high temperatures warming back into the low 80s at lake level. - BA

OPENSUMMIT July 21, 2021

July 21, 2021 Typical summer weather continues with slight warm-ups and cooldowns along with dry conditions and afternoon breezes. We saw a fire south of Lake Tahoe (Tamarack Fire) explode in size over the last several days. There is also a bigger fire to the north (Dixie Fire). With the fires to the north and south and the predominant wind direction being southwest most of the smoke has steered clear of the Tahoe Basin. Overnight into the morning hours, we can see lighter and more variable winds that allow some smoke to wander into the Tahoe Basin, but then it blows out by the afternoon. Typical afternoon southwest winds are expected to continue through the weekend, with gusts of 15-20+ mph on the lake causing some choppy water away from the west shore. The weather pattern looks like it will be typical of summer and pretty boring weather-wise through the weekend. We have sunny skies and high temperatures in the low 80s at lake level and upper 70s out over the colder lake water. High pressure builds over the West through the weekend keeping the region dry and with warming high temperatures. Afternoon highs into the mid-upper 80s at lake level. Overnight lows in the 50s. Early next week we will cool back down slightly. An area of low pressure off of the southern CA coast may help in drawing monsoonal moisture northward. But just like last weekend most of the moisture is expected to stay to our south in the southern and central Sierra, with the heaviest precip over AZ & NM. There is a low chance we could see a few pop-up showers & thunderstorms by Tuesday afternoon. - BA

OPENSUMMIT July 14, 2021

July 14, 2021 Short-Term: With the hot temperatures and dry weather, we saw an uptick in the number of fires around the state this week. Luckily for the Tahoe Basin so far the location of the fires and the wind direction have kept most of the smoke away from the area. The high temperatures are going to cool back into the low 80s Thursday - Friday, and maybe only upper 70s out on the lake on top of the cooler lake waters. The typical afternoon Zephyr breezes from the southwest will increase each afternoon. Gusts of 15-20+ mph are expected on the lake causing choppy water away from the west shore during the afternoons. Dry air in place will keep us sunny during the day with no thunderstorm chances. The Weekend: Over the weekend we will start warm back up slightly with highs into the low 80s at lake level. The afternoon Zephyr winds will continue. A slight increase in moisture in the atmosphere by Sunday afternoon could bring some cumulonimbus clouds over the mountains and maybe a stray isolated thunderstorm, but the chances are low right now. Early Next Week: As we go into next week high pressure will build to our east over the western U.S. bringing another round of hotter temperatures for that region. That will continue to warm us up slightly but not as much as this past week. High temperatures should remain in the low-mid 80s at lake level. The increasing southwest winds on the lake during the afternoons should continue, with gusts of 10-20+ mph. The one change going into early next week will be that the southerly flow on the western side of the high over the West will help to draw monsoonal moisture northward towards CA. Most of the moisture should stay to our south, but the increase could bring a better chance for afternoon thunderstorms to pop up in spots. Keep an eye out for cloud buildups that could bring thunderstorms and lightning over the lake. - BA

OPENSUMMIT July 8, 2021

July 8, 2021 After a brief reprieve, we have another heatwave on the way for the weekend. High pressure is going to build over the region through the weekend causing high temperatures to climb into the 80s at the lake, and maybe close to 90 degrees by Sunday! A little cooler possibly out on the lake but not much, only a few degrees likely. Well above average for the Sierra. Typical afternoon winds from the southwest are expected each day with gusts of 15-20+ mph on the lake. That usually creates choppy conditions on the lake away from the west shore. Afternoon thunderstorm chances increase Friday through the weekend, but the chances look lower than last weekend with less moisture available. Most of the forecast models show a chance for scattered thunderstorms but with low total precip totals for the Sierra through next Tuesday. If any thunderstorms do pop up they can create brief periods of gusty winds and heavy rain as well as lightning, so keep an eye to the sky! For early next week, the temperatures may cool a few degrees, but the hot and sunny weather is expected to continue with highs in the 80s at lake level. Summer is in full effect for now. - BA

OPENSUMMIT June 30, 2021

June 30, 2021 Strong high pressure over the Pacific NW that brought record-breaking heat over the last few days is starting to weaken and shift east. That will bring relief from the record heat but it still remains warm for our region through the weekend. Mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees at the lake through the weekend. We will see southwest breezes on the lake Wednesday afternoon with gusts of 20-30 mph bringing some chop on the water. Then lighter winds expected Thursday - Sunday. The caveat will be gusty outflow winds near any afternoon thunderstorms. Moisture is increasing from the south with thunderstorm chances each afternoon. Watch for lightning and gusty outflow winds on the lake with any thunderstorms along with heavy downpours. Afternoon thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend. Sunday some drier air may start to work in bringing a lower chance for thunderstorms as compared to Thursday through Saturday. The precipitation will be hit and miss. Some areas that see thunderstorms could see heavy downpours while other areas stay dry through the weekend. A trough may work into the West next week. We could start to see a slight cooldown along with some drier air starting Monday through midweek. Sunny skies with highs in the 70s on the lake. Afternoon Zephyr winds could return with gusty southwest winds during the afternoons. BA

OPENSUMMIT June 24, 2021

June 24, 2021 We are going to start the forecast period with some cooler weather for Wednesday through Friday. Highs only in the 70s near the lake. Lighter afternoon Zephyr winds from the southwest for Wednesday with gusts only to 15-20+ mph during the afternoon. Then only light breezes expected from the east Thursday into Friday. We have a slight chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms Wednesday and Friday. These could be dry storms so watch for possible lightning. Thursday looks to be the best chance to see scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Watch for building clouds and sudden downpours as well as lightning. The brief storms can also cause brief periods of strong wind gusts. For the weekend the heat returns. Expecting dry weather and light winds with high warming well into the 80s. It should be a beautiful weekend on the lake. Early next week the heat continues, but the chance for afternoon thunderstorms could return as monsoon moisture begins to work north. BA

OPENSUMMIT June 19, 2021

June 19, 2021 The weather story for this week through the weekend will be the heat. High pressure builds over the region with highs warming into the 80s on the lake. Expecting sunny skies with a few afternoon clouds building each afternoon Thursday-Sunday, but thunderstorm chances look to be pretty slim. We will see the typical afternoon Zephyr winds from the southwest. The breezes look lighter through Saturday with afternoon gusts only up to 20 mph. Starting Monday, we have a trough pushing into the West Coast with some cooler air and gustier afternoon winds. The sunny skies continue but highs will only be in the 70s, with next Wednesday being the coolest day where we may top out around 70 degrees. The afternoon southwest winds could gust up to 30+ mph Monday - Wednesday. That will likely bring rougher waters to the lake away from the West Shore during the afternoons so be careful if boating. The mornings and areas along the western shores are usually the calmest during the summer. It looks like we will warm up again later next week, but we will cover that in next week's lake forecast. - BA

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